Tuesday, August 15, 2006

The Commish's draft

Today, I will look at last year's 3rd place team, the Commish. He enters the draft with the best keeper by far, LJ in the 8th. He also holds the top TE in Gates in the 5th.

1st Round: Already armed with the best player in FFB, he mearly needed to add a second RB, and he chose McGahee. Now I'm a Bills fan, and I drafted Willis 7th overall last year, so I am torn. Bottom line, the Bills cant be any worse, and Willis basically stopped trying the second half of the year. I'd expect similar yardage, possibly a few more receptions and around 8 TDs. Looking back, the best remaining RB at this point was probably Reggie Bush, but he couldn't justify taking a rookie this early.

2nd Round: We talked a lot before the draft about which WR might fall, and I kept telling him that I expected Randy Moss to fall. He did. Good #1 WR, even with his antics, good for over 1000 yards and double digit TDs, even with the inept Aaron Brooks at QB.

3rd Round: Filling the flex position, the Commish selects Reuben Droughns next. Even with dumb luck, will have to improve on his 2 TD campaign from '05. Expect 6 TDs, even with a crappy O-Line.

4th Round: Roy Williams. Former #1 draft pick by the Lions...surprise, he's a WR! Nice sleeper, hailed as the next 'Big Game' Holt.

5th Round: Antonio Gates, keeper. Even with the QB switch in SD, he's still the top TE by far.

6th Round: Eli Manning. A pick that elated the Commish, as he's a Giants fan. Fine pick here, just like all the other QBs, I dont see a huge difference, even including Peyton.

7th Round: Rod Smith. A staple on my franchises the last two years. He'll get the yards, and maybe more TDs, if Javon Walker isn't all the way back from his injury.

8th Round: Larry Johnson. Yikes. Will likely average 1.5 TDs per week. Another benefit is that the Chief's arent good enough to clinch their division by the 12th week, so he will still be working hard during fantasy playoff time.

8th Round: An extra pick from his trade of Cedric Benson. Took the top Def last year in Chicago. Defenses bore me, but a fine pick.

9th Round: Deion Branch. If he plays, he's the Pats #1. Who cares at this point, the Commish will likely drop him for a backup Def during the Bear's bye week.

10th Round: Derrick Blalock. Who knows who the Jets starting RB will be. In all likelihood, its someone who's not yet on their team. Either way, I dont think Blalock would supplant LJ or Willis in the lineup, and The Commish would likely use a 3rd WR in the flex spot before this guy.

11th Round: Mark (or maybe Michael) Clayton. I forget who he plays for. Whatever, waivers by week 2.

12th Round: No pick due to Cedric Benson trade.

13th Round: Aaron Brooks: For my sake, I hope he's good since I have Lamont Jordan. I have a feeling the Commish will pick up another QB during Eli's bye week, since Brooks sucks. Best stat was on PTI when they said he had 27 TD passes...3 years ago!

14th Round: Josh (or Jeff?) Reed. Whatever.

15th Round: Ben Watson. I think he's a tight end. Obviously Gates is way better. Watson will get one start when the Chargers are on their bye.

Overall, even if he didnt draft any other players, The Commish would likely make the playoffs on LJ alone. Just like last year, he'll need one of his other RBs to perform. I'd expect Willis or Droughns to fill that role. The WRs have some question marks, but I'm personally really high on Roy Williams and Randy Moss was a first round fantasy selection in our league two years in a row. As long as LJ doesn't have a huge collapse and as long as one of his other RBs steps up as a solid #2 RB, this team will likely find itself in the championship game.

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