As previewed by Bring Back Joe McEwing, who returns to blogging with a vengeance, with this correspondence piece from the beaches of San Diego. Apparently Joe doesn't have much work to do on Mondays. ESPN's TMQ will likely declare Jihad on Joe Mac after reading this 5,000 word piece of work.
note: The following is all Joe's, I don't know how I feel about a terrorist attack on the Mets bullpen, but I'm not modifying it. 1st Amendment. And good luck getting the whole thing read before the first pitch today. The only thing I want to point out is I'm pretty sure Kenny Rogers issued a bases loaded walk to seal Detroit's fate the other day. That's not a good sign.
Here's Joe:
Well everyone - I know you have been anxiously anticipating this day for many months now (11 to be exact), and I am happy to say it is finally here. No, it's not the Mets playing a playoff game - that has been anticipated for far longer than eleven months. It is Joe McEwing's 2006 Playoff Predictions! This year encompasses a new twist to the predicting game - as our beloved New York Mets have scored more runs than their opponent enough times to reward their fans with free baseball during the month of October. This leads me to the thought of sports being the only profession where you WANT to work overtime beyond your contract terms. Amazing…..
And on we go. I will do my very, very best to not let my biased opinion towards the blue and orange influence the predicted outcomes of the National League. I will also do my very, very best to not let my biased opinion against the Yankees influence my predicted outcomes of the American League. Please know, however, that this is still a great possibility. Also, know that I am never right. Ever. If I remember correctly, last year I had the Cardinals finally winning it, beating the Angels. But that is all forgotten, and this year I think I've got it nailed.
With that being said, on we go to the first round of the American League Playoffs, commonly referred to as the ALDS:
ALDS: Yankees (AL EAST) vs. Tigers (AL WC)
Your typical David vs. Goliath matchup. Unfortunately for Detroit, they looked like a Goliath themselves before a horrible late season slump pushed them back into the AL wild card on the last day of the season. All these Tigers had to do was beat the Royals (from Kansas City for those of you who only follow major league baseball teams) ONCE in the final three games of the season, and they would have held on to win the AL Central.
They proceeded to get SWEPT, at HOME (including blowing a SIX run lead in the season finale), and lose the division by one game to the Twins, who decided to win three quarters of their games in the final two thirds of the year just for the fun of it. The Tigers played their final 50 games at a 19-31 clip, which is reminiscent of a typical 62-100 year that Tiger fans are used to. 50 games is a lot of baseball. Enough to be convinced that this Tiger team didn’t really just hit a slump, but rather fell back to the mediocrity that they are good at. For those of you wondering how this collapse compares to the 2005 White Sox almost-collapse, it's not even close. The Sox went in a 23-26 swoon at one point, which was right before they won 8 of their last 10 to wrap up the division. These Tigers went through a collapse 4 1/2 games worse than that, and didn't respond with a strong finish. What does this all tell me? A few things. (1) The Tigers really aren't that good. (2) The Tigers young arms are tired. (3) The Tigers clutch hitting has stopped. (4) The Tigers really aren't that good. Good things for the Tigers include, and are limited to, the fact that they actually won more games on the road (49) than at home (46) this year. I guess that's good….because to get to the Series they have to win at least one road game in each series. The Tigers have Nate Robertson slated to start game 1 of the series, Justin Verlander in game 2, and (gasp!) Kenny Rogers in game 3. Jeremy Bonderman will go game 4 if the series gets that far.
The Yankees, on the other hand, have been rolling on all cylinders for the good part of the second half of this season. They are looking like the machine that the Boss envisioned when he handed over a book of blank checks to Brian Cashman before the season. The acquisition of Bobby Abreu was one of the best trades made in recent history by this organization. Abreu is in a lineup that really capitalizes on his ability to draw walks, and put Damon and Jeter in front of him and its Christmas every day for A-Rod, Giambi, Matsui, Sheffield and co. This is evidenced by their 930 runs scored (5.74 rpg) this season. The Yanks are running out surprise 19 game winner
Chien-Ming Wang in game 1, to be followed by Mike Mussina in game 2. Randy Johnson was scheduled to pitch game 3, but his recently disclosed herniated disc in his back should prevent him from taking the hill. Look instead for Corey Lidle and Jaret Wright to finish out the series. The loss of Johnson looks to be more than compensated by the regained health of Matsui and Sheffield, and the depth that Lidle provided the staff when he came over with Abreu. Experts are saying the loss of Johnson will be a factor in the Yanks quest for another championship, but if you are reading this you know as well as I do that Johnson is nothing more than mediocre anymore and that Lidle is only a hint of a drop off from the Unit. If the Yankees do have a weakness, it's in their bullpen, but thankfully the other 3 AL teams are predominantly pitching-oriented, so that weakness probably will not be exposed to the extent that it could be if, say, both the Sox were in the playoffs again. Look for the Yanks to put a barrage of runs up against the tired, young Tiger arms, and for the veteran pitching to be steady the whole way. The only distracter that will come into play for the Yankees will be the never ending saga of Alex Rodriguez vs. the Yankees fans and media. Look for A-Rod to put a few Justin Verlander fastballs into the centerfield bleachers in game 2 and get off the Yankee-fan-shit-list.
FUTURE: The Tigers have Kenny Rogers….Kenny walk in the winning run to lose the NLCS FREAKING Rogers…on their team. Oh yeah, they also lost 31 of their last 50 and have a bunch of young, inexperienced, scared shitless of Yankee Stadium arms starting the other games. Yankees in 3.
ALDS: TWINS (AL Central) vs. ATHLETICS (AL West)
This is clearly the most intriguing series in the first round. If you are to read only the scores from these games, it might get eerily confused with soccer. The Twins post the most amazing person to only play in 20% of his team's games in recent memory (okay, Randy Johnson was equally as amazing with the 2000-2002 DBacks, but Johan is still amazing), and that is arguably enough to win any series single handedly. The unfortunate part of it for the Twins is that the A's rotation is as solid as any in the postseason, led at the top by the always steady Barry Zito, and followed by Esteban Loaiza, Dan Haren, Joe Blanton and the re-emergence of Rich Harden from the disabled list. Zito has already been announced as the game 1 starter, followed by Loaiza in game 2. Haren pitched on Sunday, so look for him to go game 3 on Friday with his normal 4 days rest. Game 4 will go to either Blanton or Harden, if he is on the post season roster.
The lineup is anchored by comeback player of the year candidate Frank Thomas, but the real key could be the health and production of Eric Chavez, who can provide invaluable left handed protection behind Thomas if he is going right. After a monstrous April, Chavez hovered around the Mendoza line for the rest of the summer while battling tendonitis in both forearms (ouch - imagine trying to hit a Felix Hernandez fastball with TWO sore forearms - amazing he DID manage to hit .200!) He has had plenty of rest in the past week, so if modern medicine can make him right for a month, he will add a dimension that has been missing for most of the year to their lineup. Nick Swisher has had a coming out year, and is fulfilling the prophecy that Billy Beane left for him. Swisher has bounced between 2nd and 7th in the lineup, and also between first base and left field. Wherever he plays and hits, he will be a huge factor in their run production.
The Twins are a team energized by a youth movement that hasn’t been seen in the playoffs in a long, long time. Twenty-two of the thirty-four players on their year end roster were home grown - the majority of them coming through their Rochester, NY affiliate within the last three years. Look for as many as fifteen of them to make the post season roster. The loss of Francisco Liriano to throw-out-your-arm syndrome was supposed to be detrimental to this club, but they responded by going 40-25 since his last win on July 23. That stat alone shows their resiliency and balance of the lineup and staff that was often overshadowed by the pitching dominance of Santana and Liriano. Players like Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Barlett, and Nick Punto have stepped up and provided play after play to win games. If guys like these were in New York they would be dubbed as having that "Yankee magical aura that knows how to win games" despite their pedestrian numbers (Morneau excluded). Joe Mauer has done a fantastic job handling the young pitching staff, and in his spare time chipped in with an AL batting title (.347). Look for the Rotation to go Santana - rookie Boof Bonser - Brad Radke, and then either Carlos Silva or Matt Garza.
Despite all of this, the most important factor in the Twins race to the pennant is their capturing of the AL Central crown on the last day of the season. This was possible, of course, because of the
Tigers blown six run lead on the same afternoon. The division title gave Minnesota home field advantage for this series. If there is any team that needs home field advantage, it is the Twins, as they were an MLB best 54-27 at home this season. Historically, they are 11-4 at the Metrodome in postseason play, although they have lost their last three there.
FUTURE: One of the more amazing mysteries in the 21st century is how the A's turn into the best team in baseball after the break each year, and are clueless before the break (45-43 before this year, 48-26 after). It is as predictable as the Cubs booking a tee time for the third Saturday each October. Equally as predictable is the A's token collapse in the ALDS each year. Look for Johan to put the Twins up 1-0 after the first game, and then the A's battle back to take a 2-1 series lead behind Loaiza and Haren, only for Johan to come back on three days rest in game 4 and win in Oakland, and then the Twins pitch by committee to win game 5 in the dome, with a big hit by Mauer being the difference in the clincher. Twins in 5
Meanwhile, as this drama is unfolding in the junior circuit, the following will be occurring in the more exciting senior circuit:
NLDS: METS (NL East) vs. DODGERS (NL WC)
Ohhhh boy. Two major markets. Two oceans. Two media crazy towns. Two lime lights. Replay of the classic 1988 NLCS. This is the post season series made in media heaven when Yankees - Red Sox is not an option. The Mets have been in cruise control since their 9-1 road trip concluded on June 15 and ballooned their lead to 9.5 games. Mets fans should actually be very wary of this, as teams with 10 game or more margins of victory in their division have only won one of the last ten World Series (
see 1998 Yankees). Will they be able to just put it into drive again after cruising for the past four months? My answer is yes. This team is young and hungry, and the veterans that they do have are old and hungry, as few have had postseason success in their life. On Wednesday, Carlos Delgado will give up his title as "current player to play the most regular season games without appearing in the post season." Cliff Floyd had two insignificant at bats in the 1997 World Series with the Marlins, and even though he got a ring, I'm sure he is hungry to contribute to a winner. Paul LoDuca also has never been here before, and Shawn Green was a quick one and done in 2004. Mix those hungry vets to the youth of Reyes and Wright, and then add Carlos Beltran (who can forget HIS postseason in 2004 - 1.558 OPS!!!) and one Super 'Stache and you have a recipe for a big train that is going to roll. But then there is the question of the pitching. Their post season #1 - El Duque Hernandez - didn't even crack the White Sox rotation last October. Rather, he pitched out of the pen (albeit very well) during the post season. How a team can expect to win with a #1 who just last year was a #6 is a big, big question that has to be answered. Fortunately for the Mets, what they lack in starters they make up for in the bullpen. If a terrorist wanted to attack America right now, they ought to focus on the patch of dirt behind the right field wall at Shea, because it clearly has been the most efficient unit in America all summer. The Mets recipe has to be keep it tied through 5 innings with the starter, and then let the bullpen shut the opponent down while the train rolls to victory. Look for John Maine and his 6 inning 2 run habit to be enormous in game four of this series.
The Dodgers quietly led the National League in both batting average and on base average this year - something that should scare the daylights out of a shaky rotation that likes to throw many pitches as it is (
see Steve Trachsel and Orlando Hernandez). Some might say that their back to back to back to back home runs to tie a huge game with the Padres two weeks ago is a moment that will launch them through the post season to the World Series. This could be the case, but as evidence by their 10-6 loss the day after the comeback, I think it meant nothing more than another win in the standings. This is a team without much pop in the lineup - their leading HR hitter was Nomar Garciaparra with 20, and they only had one player with 100+ RBI (JD Drew). This will make it very difficult for them to score on the Mets bullpen, as the Mets' pen led the league in K/BB ratio and definitely makes the other team earn it. The one hope that the Dodgers do have is the strength of their rotation - Derek Lowe, Greg Maddux and Brad Penny. It will be interesting to see if Hong-Chih Kuo gets a start in this series, as he has been surprisingly effective in his six starts in September (29.1 innings, 10 ER, including 6 shutout innings vs. the Mets on 9/8). Kuo could be an X-Factor as the Mets have struggled mightily against lefties this year, and the only other left handed option that Grady Little has is Mark Hendrickson. Penny has been erratic since his All-Star Game start, but Lowe and Maddux have been rocks in September. If the Dodgers take one of the first two in Shea, watch out, as they were 49-32 at home, and will be drawing Steve Trachsel and rookie John Maine in Dodger Stadium with a chance to win the series. The only problem is that the Dodgers were mediocre on the road (39-42), and the Mets were excellent at home (50-31), so winning one of the first two in Shea will be tough.
NOTE: Game 2 features Tom Glavine vs. Greg Maddux. Need I say more???
FUTURE: The Mets' lineup will get back on a role, led by Reyes and Wright. However, the rotation will be equally as poor. Look for a few slug fests in this one, with the Mets bullpen ending up being the difference. Mets in 5.
NLDS: PADRES (NL West) vs. CARDINALS (NL CENTRAL)
The Cardinals are back, making their sixth postseason appearance in the last seven years (
really - I looked it up), albeit with probably the weakest of all of those teams. They have Phat Albert (likely repeat MVP) and Chris Carpenter (likely repeat Cy Young), and not much else. Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds have been MIA all summer, and David Eckstein found a way to injure his 5'7" frame, although he did return during the final week of the season. Despite this, Tony LaRussa found a way to lead his team to 83 mostly unimpressive wins (save Albert's walk offs, which are too numerous to note here) and the division title, despite being in a tail spin for a majority of August and September. All being said, the Cardinals don't have many positive peripherals to stir up hope going into the second season. What they do have is a new stadium, for whatever that's worth, which is basically nothing more than higher ticket prices. To make things worse, their mediocre close Jason Isringhausen is out for the season with throw-my-arm-out syndrome, and the closers job has been delegated to BRADEN LOOPER. Seriously. The Cards haven't even taken the field for game 1 yet, and they already have their backs to the wall.
The Padres, meanwhile, put together an impressive September (and Oct. 1) going 20-9 to win the division in a tiebreaker over the Dodgers. All seems to be clicking in Lo-Cal at the right time. Jake Peavy has regained his 2005 form, posting ERA's below 3.00 in both August and September, while registering 6 wins in that time. Clay Hensley has been even better over that time period (2.32), and Chris Young put together an impressive finish (2.56 in September). If these top three keep pitching like this, it will make it very tough for Albert to beat them by himself, which is what he has to do. The back end of the staff of course has all time saves leader Trevor Hoffman anchoring it, while Cla Meredith has turned himself into the best setup man in the league. On top of this, the lineup is clicking at the right time too. 38 year old Mike Piazza has found new youth in his knees and once again has led all MLB catchers in home runs with 22 while hitting a respectable .283 and slugging .501. Adrian Gonzalez has proved himself a force to be reckoned with while Dave Roberts has turned into a solid every day leadoff hitter somehow. Geoff Blum has filled in at shortstop admirably for the injured Khalil Greene. The Padres were actually two games better on the road while the Cardinals were a crazy 49-31 at home and 34-47 on the road - all leading to suggest that home field advantage for the Padres, in a pitchers park, with great starting pitching, will be too much for the Cardinals to overcome. On top of this, the Pads somehow lined up Peavy to go in game 1 while they were battling for the division title.
FUTURE: This is baseball, and crazy things happen. Jake Peavy got rattled by Dodgers base coach Mariano Duncan the other week - showing that he is mentally vulnerable to tough situations. Mike Piazza IS 38 years old still, and, seriously, who the heck is Clay Hensley? These are the same two teams that faced off at the same time last year, and the Cardinals outscored them 20-11 in a three game laugher, including pounding Peavy for 8 runs in 4 1/3 in the opener. Yes, the Cardinals are weaker and the Padres stronger this time around, and Braden Looper is now the closer for the Red Birds. But they still have that man Albert in the middle of the lineup, and he seems to find ways to win baseball games (
ask Brad Lidge). Once Carpenter beats Peavy in game 1, it sends the Birds back to Busch Stadium with a chance to win it. And they don't call Busch the "sea of red", nor do they call Cardinal fans the best fans in baseball, nor did this mediocre Cardinals team go 49-31 at home, for nothing. Cardinals in 4.
ALCS: Yankees vs. Twins
The Yankees are going to have cruised into this series and will have their ace, Chin-Mien Wang, set to go in game 1 with plenty of rest, while the Twins will have to wait until game 2 if they want to send Johan on 3 days rest, or game 3 if they want to give him 5 days. My guess is they give him 5 days because he would have just pitched on 3 days in game 5 of the ALDS, and send him out for game 3 and then game 7 if needed. Either way he's only pitching 2 games in the series - so why rush him on short rest? If he is slated for game 3, he could be used in relief in games 1 and 2 if the situation arises, as there is a travel day scheduled in between games 2 and 3. The problem is that without Johan pitching one of the first two games in Yankee Stadium, the Twins have pretty much no hope to escape back to the Dome tied 1-1. Thankfully for the Twins they have an outstanding bullpen, which will be needed against this Yankee lineup that likes to see many pitches. Don't look for any Twins starter besides Santana to go much more than 5 innings in any game - for both pitch count and effectiveness reasons. Boof Bonser is going to try to throw a fastball by A-Rod, and A-Rod is going to give him whiplash. These Twins don’t like to lose though, and that goes a long way in the postseason, so look for the series to be a dog fight for the ages. I see the Yankees going up 2-0, but the Twins taking 2 of 3 at home, and then sending Johan back out on three days rest in game 6 at Yankee Stadium. Game 6 will be 1-1, with the Yankees pushing one across late to win 2-1 and take the series. The Yankees lineup is just too strong to think that any AL team has a chance of upsetting them. Yankees in 6.
MVP: Alex Rodriguez
NLCS: Mets vs. Cardinals
The National League will see a repeat of the 2000 LCS when the Mets won in 5 games. The difference in this one is that the home field advantage is opposite, with the series starting in Shea. The Mets will open with Glavine after El Duque pitched game 5 of the LDS. Game 2 will see Trachsel pitching with El Duque back for game 3 and Maine for game 4, slotting El Duque up for game 7. After an emotional Division Series, the Mets will look to reset and play another series. Thankfully the momentum from the game 5 will carry into this series and the offense will be running on all cylinders (think Diamondbacks, 2001, after
Tony Womack's walk off single in game 5 of the NLDS vs. St. Louis). The Cardinals will counter with Chris Carpenter in game 1, followed by Jeff Suppan, Jason Marquis and Jeff Happy Weaver (Happy because he throws happy sliders that like to hang glide towards the plate). Although this is the rotation that got through the Padres, the Mets match up much better with them, as they have a tendency to give up the long ball (35 from Marquis and 16 from Weaver in only 83 innings), and the Mets like to hit the long ball (7 of the 8 starters had 10 or more HR). The other main discrepancy in this series is the bullpens, as the Mets have the best in the league and the Cardinals have arguably the worst of all the playoff teams. Combine all of that with the Mets dominance at home and the Cardinals struggles on the road, and this one is going to be a laugher, as the Mets will pounce on all Cardinals starters except Carpenter, who will win his two starts. Mets in 6.
MVP: Jose Reyes
World Series: Mets vs. Yankees
I didn't want to do this. I didn't. I started writing this piece thinking to myself that I wouldn't predict a Subway Series. I COULDN'T predict a subway series. It's too obvious, it's too predictable - gees louise it's like picking all four #1 seeds to go to the final four and then emailing it to your buddies and telling them you are a genius! So how did it come to this? How? I guess the answer is because it's going to happen. That's why. We are entering an era that is going to be reminiscent of the 1950's, with the Mets and Yankees being the clear cut best teams in baseball for years to come, and them oftentimes fighting it out in October to see who has bragging rights for the next 12 months. I was asked recently - by an anonymous chick nonetheless - if I am nervous for the playoffs. And my answer was no, I am not nervous. I am not nervous because I KNOW the Mets are the best team in the league. I KNOW they deserve to be there. This isn’t like 2000 where the outfield consisted of Jay Payton, Derek Bell and Benny Agbayani (
man that Hawaiian could hit huh?). This team doesn’t have Rick Reed and Bobby Jones throwing to the two square inch spot they had to hit to be effective. This isn’t the team with no bridge to Benitez. Heck, this team is good, real good. This team has Shawn Green hitting seventh and a reliever with an ERA of 2.09 that no one knows about (quick - name him…….I bet you thought of 3 or 4 guys before you settled on the correct answer of Pedro Feliciano right??!?!?). This team has a hall of fame closer and the most exciting player since Pete Rose hitting leadoff. This team has Broadway David Wright drinking milk and playing third base and a center fielder who put together the best postseason ever just two years ago. This team has a World Series MVP in their rotation and another who has been there and won that multiple times. I am not nervous because I know next year they are going to win 100 games (this year they would've won 105 had they had anything to play for in the last 6 weeks). And then the year after that they will win 100 again. I am not nervous because I can see a dynasty in the making. I see a future rotation of Pelfrey-Humber-Heilman-Maine-Perez and a future lineup of Reyes-Milledge-Beltran-Wright for years to come. Instead of being nervous, I am trying to ensure that no matter what happens, that I remember this as a summer in the sun, a summer of partying, a summer of utter DOMINATION of the rest of the league. God, what I would do to remember 1986….THAT must have been fun.
And you know what? I think when these Mets go into the sixth inning down 5-3 to the Yankees in all of these games that they will still win. They will win because Bradford-Feliciano-Hernandez-Heilman-Wagner will give them as many shutout innings as they need to come back. They'll win because Jose Reyes was touched in his mother's womb and told that he was going to play baseball on the biggest stage and shine in the biggest moments possible. They will win because they are having too much fun on the field to allow themselves to lose. They will win because they CAN win. Because the Yankees are SUPPOSED to win, and they will shutter under the thought of losing the series to their cross town inferiors and what Steinbrenner's response will be. They will win because they have that swagger that you can't teach. That swagger that tells your opponent that you are going to beat him no matter what he does. The swagger that Dave Wright showed when he drove Mariano Rivera's first pitch over Johnny Damon's head on May 19. They are going to win because they are either too young or too old to be intimidated by the Yankees. They'll win because this is my playoff preview, and I say they're going to. Mets in 7.
MVP: Billy Wagner.